Jared Dillion’s Awesome Portfolio is 20% stocks, gold, real estate, bonds, and cash (tbills). But I think going forward, DBMF instead of bonds would undoubtedly make it stronger. Why do you think UUP model allocation is so high? REITS have stunk since Covid but I think you could substitute home equity or rentals or farmland etc.
I think there's probably some recency bias built into this. There's only about 4-5 years of history in this model because that's only how long DBMF has been around. It's only existed during a period where the dollar has done quite well, so it's getting overemphasized in this scenario.
If we had a longer lookback period, the results would probably be different, but I think the pro-diversification argument still stands.
Can't really speak to home equity, rentals or farmland. Just not my area of expertise.
I think if you substitute a managed futures fund with a longer track record like ASFYX, you get a more robust picture. I agree the dollar has had a strong run AND I believe it’s usually negatively correlated to risk assets like equities so does well as a stabilizer, like gold or tbills. And recently, the dollar has a yield too. So if one had a barbell of “safer” uncorrelated assets like gold, tbills, managed futures, and the dollar, then you could layer in just 15-20% riskier assets like QQQ and maybe even 1-2% bitcoin, and you have a stable portfolio with a high sharpe and low volatility (so long as you don’t just stare at the btc all day).
Less than ideal. DBMF is making infrequent distributions, but they've been large ones. The trailing 12-month yield has gotten as high as 10% and, while that's a bit of an outlier, it does create some significant tax consequences.
What about some of the Innovator buffer ETFs in a taxable account given that they don't distribute dividends? Maybe that's a discussion for another day.
Jared Dillion’s Awesome Portfolio is 20% stocks, gold, real estate, bonds, and cash (tbills). But I think going forward, DBMF instead of bonds would undoubtedly make it stronger. Why do you think UUP model allocation is so high? REITS have stunk since Covid but I think you could substitute home equity or rentals or farmland etc.
I think there's probably some recency bias built into this. There's only about 4-5 years of history in this model because that's only how long DBMF has been around. It's only existed during a period where the dollar has done quite well, so it's getting overemphasized in this scenario.
If we had a longer lookback period, the results would probably be different, but I think the pro-diversification argument still stands.
Can't really speak to home equity, rentals or farmland. Just not my area of expertise.
I think if you substitute a managed futures fund with a longer track record like ASFYX, you get a more robust picture. I agree the dollar has had a strong run AND I believe it’s usually negatively correlated to risk assets like equities so does well as a stabilizer, like gold or tbills. And recently, the dollar has a yield too. So if one had a barbell of “safer” uncorrelated assets like gold, tbills, managed futures, and the dollar, then you could layer in just 15-20% riskier assets like QQQ and maybe even 1-2% bitcoin, and you have a stable portfolio with a high sharpe and low volatility (so long as you don’t just stare at the btc all day).
How do you feel about a managed futures ETF in a taxable account?
Less than ideal. DBMF is making infrequent distributions, but they've been large ones. The trailing 12-month yield has gotten as high as 10% and, while that's a bit of an outlier, it does create some significant tax consequences.
Better off in an IRA.
What about some of the Innovator buffer ETFs in a taxable account given that they don't distribute dividends? Maybe that's a discussion for another day.