You start off by declaring “I’m not a crypto bull or bear”, and finish by saying “Again, I’m not a huge crypto bull”. In between, the body of the article sure sounds bullish to me!
Not that I disagree, but just admit you’re a bull and the article takes on new credibility. Don’t fear saying you’re bullish, because if you truly believe, as you say, that the “retail arrival into bitcoin is in the very early innings and I expect the pace of inflows into bitcoin ETFs will remain vigorous throughout 2024 and beyond”, and that “once advisors get on board en masse, billions and billions of dollars will keep flowing in”….then there can be only one direction for the BTC price, right?
Actually, the billions and billion could vanish very quickly. Such flows depend on a continually rising price for Bitcoin. In other words, it’s “hot money” chasing a moving target. As long as BTC is seen as heading straight up, the dollars will follow. But if it reverses, then the $63 billion AUM in the ETFs could themselves be “halved” or more. Get it? It’s a two way street. In the meantime, enjoy the ride!
I'm not a bleeding heart crypto maximalist in the way that some others are, but I do believe that there's more upside than downside potential based on the current landscape. If bitcoin went to $100,000, I wouldn't be surprised. If bitcoin went to $50,000, I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I say I'm not a bull or bear. I simply don't have any real conviction one way or the other because I just don't know how to properly value crypto.
I do, however, believe that the bull case for bitcoin is stronger than the bear case at the moment.
You could be right, but I remind you that when BTC was at $20,000 after topping at $68,000, the bear case looked stronger than the bull case. Many objective observers were saying it could be on its way to $10,000 or below. That was, of course, wrong.
My point is any analysis is captive to the moment. Recency bias seems to play a big role in any of the articles I read on Bitcoin, whether currently or in the past. There is no way to value it. You are correct. So, whatever it has done lately seems to guide opinions as to what it could do in the near future and beyond. In short, nobody knows nothing!
Not really. Everybody's situation is so individual that I don't want to give the impression that I'm endorsing a particular allocation, especially since I'm not a licensed financial advisor.
I'm comfortable saying that one ETF is better than another, in my opinion, but I usually don't stretch it beyond that.
I don't follow the crypto market terribly closely, but I do have a relatively minor position in bitcoin that I'll buy and hold indefinitely. Figuring out the shorter-term movements are best left to people smarter than me!
Interesting
You start off by declaring “I’m not a crypto bull or bear”, and finish by saying “Again, I’m not a huge crypto bull”. In between, the body of the article sure sounds bullish to me!
Not that I disagree, but just admit you’re a bull and the article takes on new credibility. Don’t fear saying you’re bullish, because if you truly believe, as you say, that the “retail arrival into bitcoin is in the very early innings and I expect the pace of inflows into bitcoin ETFs will remain vigorous throughout 2024 and beyond”, and that “once advisors get on board en masse, billions and billions of dollars will keep flowing in”….then there can be only one direction for the BTC price, right?
Actually, the billions and billion could vanish very quickly. Such flows depend on a continually rising price for Bitcoin. In other words, it’s “hot money” chasing a moving target. As long as BTC is seen as heading straight up, the dollars will follow. But if it reverses, then the $63 billion AUM in the ETFs could themselves be “halved” or more. Get it? It’s a two way street. In the meantime, enjoy the ride!
I'm not a bleeding heart crypto maximalist in the way that some others are, but I do believe that there's more upside than downside potential based on the current landscape. If bitcoin went to $100,000, I wouldn't be surprised. If bitcoin went to $50,000, I wouldn't be surprised. That's why I say I'm not a bull or bear. I simply don't have any real conviction one way or the other because I just don't know how to properly value crypto.
I do, however, believe that the bull case for bitcoin is stronger than the bear case at the moment.
You could be right, but I remind you that when BTC was at $20,000 after topping at $68,000, the bear case looked stronger than the bull case. Many objective observers were saying it could be on its way to $10,000 or below. That was, of course, wrong.
My point is any analysis is captive to the moment. Recency bias seems to play a big role in any of the articles I read on Bitcoin, whether currently or in the past. There is no way to value it. You are correct. So, whatever it has done lately seems to guide opinions as to what it could do in the near future and beyond. In short, nobody knows nothing!
All fair points.
"nobody knows nothing!" - which is why I just buy-and-hold my position!
Dennis again, enjoyed and agree on your take on bitcoin.
Do you have any portfolios to share, on the conservative side for us old timers.
I do have the Fidelity etf at 1% of my portfolio. thanks for the update.
Not really. Everybody's situation is so individual that I don't want to give the impression that I'm endorsing a particular allocation, especially since I'm not a licensed financial advisor.
I'm comfortable saying that one ETF is better than another, in my opinion, but I usually don't stretch it beyond that.
Thanks, keep up the good work.
I don't follow the crypto market terribly closely, but I do have a relatively minor position in bitcoin that I'll buy and hold indefinitely. Figuring out the shorter-term movements are best left to people smarter than me!